2009 Election Results Tempest in Tea Cup

Republicans have elected governors in Virginia and New Jersey, which means pundits will be claiming (or these days more likely screaming) that President Obama and his policies have been rejected. Well, let's not be so quick to kick a man who is a long way from being knocked down to the ground.

First, despite a few heavily contested and extremely costly races voter turnout was low, as is usually the case for off year state and local elections. Second, Virginia and New Jersey voters have their own quirks that do not necessarily translate into national political trends.

In Virginia, the winner, Robert McDonnell, was from Northern Virginia, the state's wealthiest and most populous area. Challenger Creigh Deeds was from a rural part of the state, lacked statewide name recognition, and was at a clear fundraising disadvantage from the beginning.

In New Jersey, Gov. Jon Corzine was viewed by many as a cold fish, has stonewalled the media regarding his former romantic and financial relationship with a powerful female labor union leader, and floated some notably stupid ideas (e.g., increasing NJ Turnpike and Garden State Parkway highway tolls by several hundred percent in coming years) that called into question his political savvy and personal sanity.

As this is written, the hotly contested Congressional race in New York's 23rd Congressional District was still up in the air. Again, too much is likely to be read into that outcome when the dust settles.

The only political poll that matters on the success or failure of the current administration's economic recovery initiatives will be taken in November 2010. So let's chill for a bit and do what we can to help our families, friends, and neighbors through the current economic crisis.

Tails Don't Wag Dogs

All the usual media opinionators, bloviators, and blowhards are salivating at the prospect of spending countless hours this evening microscopically examining two gubernatorial and one U.S. House of Representatives election in a vain effort to foretell President Obama's political future. They might as well read tea leaves, chicken entrails or Tarot cards.

Having lived for years in New Jersey and Virginia, neither one is a reliable political weather vane, especially in these dire years of economic collapse, ill advised foreign wars, and media-driven political polarization.

State issues rather than national issues will drive the voters to the polls. Unless pompous panels of radio and tv pontificators provide solid evidence to the contrary, my belief remains that all politics is local, especially in off-year elections.

Will wait until Wednesday morning for conclusive results. My own interest is focused on the Congressional seat in Watertown, New York, where an estimated $3 million has been spent to date (look for a higher final total) in a market with little in the way of mass media to warrant these costs.

A number of underemployed folks like former Gov. Sarah Palin, lackadaisical former presidential candidate Sen. Fred Thompson, and a few overpaid media jackals with personal axes to grind are frantically stirring the political pot up by the Canadian border as if Noc. 3 is judgment day. Either way, the outcomes will be interesting, but not necessarily telling.